MBS Highway Housing Index, February 2025
The MBS Highway National Housing Index rose five points in February 2025, as both buyer activity and price direction saw seasonal increases, albeit less pronounced than last year.
National Data
The MBS Highway National Housing Index in February 2025 rose 5 points month-over-month to 41. This compares with a 12 point gain at the same time last year (42 → 54). As a reminder, an index level of 50 represents the breakeven point between contraction (<50) and expansion (>50). In general, while market sentiment today is stronger than it was in early-2023, it is much weaker than it was in early 2024.
The Buyer Activity sub-index rose for the third-straight month, climbing 8 points to 38. However, the normal seasonal upswing has been much less pronounced than last year (+16 points to 49). This despite average 30-year mortgage rates being roughly the same in both periods (~7%), and the inventory of homes for sale being 20–25% higher.
The national Price Direction sub-index also rose for the third-straight month, adding 2 points to reach 44. A year ago at this time, the national Price Direction sub-index jumped 8 points to hit 60, with all seven regions boasting Price Direction sub-indexes above the 50 breakeven point. Today, only two regions are in expansion territory: Northeast (68) and Mid-Atlantic (61), while the West (50) is nearly there.
The Buyer Activity sub-index rose for the third-straight month, climbing 8 points to 38. However, the normal seasonal upswing has been much less pronounced than last year (+16 points to 49). This despite average 30-year mortgage rates being roughly the same in both periods (~7%), and the inventory of homes for sale being 20–25% higher.
The national Price Direction sub-index also rose for the third-straight month, adding 2 points to reach 44. A year ago at this time, the national Price Direction sub-index jumped 8 points to hit 60, with all seven regions boasting Price Direction sub-indexes above the 50 breakeven point. Today, only two regions are in expansion territory: Northeast (68) and Mid-Atlantic (61), while the West (50) is nearly there.
Regional Data
In February 2025, Buyer Activity levels rose in all seven regions, with the Northwest (+14) and West (+13) regions showing the largest monthly increase, and the Northeast remaining the most active (46). The smallest monthly increase came from the Southeast (+3), which was also the least active region (32). No regions saw Buyer Activity above the 50 breakeven. This time last year, four markets were in expansion territory.
Six of the seven regions also saw their Price Direction sub-indexes move higher. The Northwest (+11), Northeast (+10) and Mid-Atlantic (+9) regions all saw nice increases in their Price Direction sub-indexes, while the West and Southwest saw very modest increases. The Southeast, in contrast, saw a 5-point decline (35 → 30) and had the weakest price momentum overall.
"Our overall index improved for the third-straight month, as real estate professionals geared up for the spring selling season. But things are still a bit cooler than they were at the same time last year. Near-term trends in inflation show that we’re approaching the Fed’s 2% target (for “core” PCE), but the bond market remains skeptical, only pricing in 1–2 Fed rate cuts during 2025,” said Barry Habib, MBS Highway’s Founder and CEO.
In February 2025, Buyer Activity levels rose in all seven regions, with the Northwest (+14) and West (+13) regions showing the largest monthly increase, and the Northeast remaining the most active (46). The smallest monthly increase came from the Southeast (+3), which was also the least active region (32). No regions saw Buyer Activity above the 50 breakeven. This time last year, four markets were in expansion territory.
Six of the seven regions also saw their Price Direction sub-indexes move higher. The Northwest (+11), Northeast (+10) and Mid-Atlantic (+9) regions all saw nice increases in their Price Direction sub-indexes, while the West and Southwest saw very modest increases. The Southeast, in contrast, saw a 5-point decline (35 → 30) and had the weakest price momentum overall.
"Our overall index improved for the third-straight month, as real estate professionals geared up for the spring selling season. But things are still a bit cooler than they were at the same time last year. Near-term trends in inflation show that we’re approaching the Fed’s 2% target (for “core” PCE), but the bond market remains skeptical, only pricing in 1–2 Fed rate cuts during 2025,” said Barry Habib, MBS Highway’s Founder and CEO.
Methodology
MBS Highway’s monthly Housing Index provides an accurate and real-time read on buyer activity and home price direction both nationally and regionally in the U.S. housing market. This survey of 30,000 mortgage and real estate professionals fills a crucial industry need for insights that reflect buyers’ immediate experiences, helping mortgage loan originators to better serve homebuyers.
The MBS Highway Housing Survey is comprised of two separate component indices: buyer activity and home price direction. Each month, respondents rank buyer activity as “active,” “steady,” or “slower,” and home price direction as “price increases,” “steady,” or “price reductions.” A national and regional index is calculated for each component index by applying the formula “[active + (steady/2)]” for buyer activity, and “[price increases + (steady/2)]” for home price direction. The score for each component index is then used to calculate the MBS Highway Housing Index by applying the formula "[(national buyer activity/2) + (national home price direction/2)].
Any number over 50 indicates expansion while a number below 50 indicates contraction. The MBS Highway Housing Index can range between 0 and 100.
Dan Habib, MBS Highway’s Chief Revenue Officer, explained, “There are a few reliable housing reports available in the market, most of which are delayed by two months. Because MBS Highway has a large base of mortgage and real estate clients, we felt we were in a unique position to capture real-time housing data from our subscribers, who are on the front lines of the housing market.”
MBS Highway’s monthly Housing Index provides an accurate and real-time read on buyer activity and home price direction both nationally and regionally in the U.S. housing market. This survey of 30,000 mortgage and real estate professionals fills a crucial industry need for insights that reflect buyers’ immediate experiences, helping mortgage loan originators to better serve homebuyers.
The MBS Highway Housing Survey is comprised of two separate component indices: buyer activity and home price direction. Each month, respondents rank buyer activity as “active,” “steady,” or “slower,” and home price direction as “price increases,” “steady,” or “price reductions.” A national and regional index is calculated for each component index by applying the formula “[active + (steady/2)]” for buyer activity, and “[price increases + (steady/2)]” for home price direction. The score for each component index is then used to calculate the MBS Highway Housing Index by applying the formula "[(national buyer activity/2) + (national home price direction/2)].
Any number over 50 indicates expansion while a number below 50 indicates contraction. The MBS Highway Housing Index can range between 0 and 100.
Dan Habib, MBS Highway’s Chief Revenue Officer, explained, “There are a few reliable housing reports available in the market, most of which are delayed by two months. Because MBS Highway has a large base of mortgage and real estate clients, we felt we were in a unique position to capture real-time housing data from our subscribers, who are on the front lines of the housing market.”