MBS Highway Housing Index, January 2025
The MBS Highway National Housing Index rose four points in January 2025, as the steady rise in mortgage rates during December tempered the normal seasonal upswing.
National Data
The MBS Highway National Housing Index in January 2025 rose 4 points month-over-month to 36. This compares with an 8 point gain at the same time last year (34 → 42). As a reminder, an index level of 50 represents the breakeven point between contraction (<50) and expansion (>50).
In each of the past three years, our overall index bottomed in November. In November 2022 at 13; in November 2023 at 31; and in November 2024 at 30. In general, while market sentiment today is significantly stronger than it was in late-2022, it is slightly weaker than it was in late-2023.
The Buyer Activity sub-index rose for the second-straight month, climbing 4 points to 30. However, the normal seasonal upswing has been less pronounced than last year (+6 points to 33), most likely reflecting mortgage rates that drifted steadily higher in December 2024.
The national Price Direction sub-index also rose for the second-straight month, adding 4 points to reach 42. A year ago at this time, the national Price Direction sub-index jumped 11 points to hit 52.
In each of the past three years, our overall index bottomed in November. In November 2022 at 13; in November 2023 at 31; and in November 2024 at 30. In general, while market sentiment today is significantly stronger than it was in late-2022, it is slightly weaker than it was in late-2023.
The Buyer Activity sub-index rose for the second-straight month, climbing 4 points to 30. However, the normal seasonal upswing has been less pronounced than last year (+6 points to 33), most likely reflecting mortgage rates that drifted steadily higher in December 2024.
The national Price Direction sub-index also rose for the second-straight month, adding 4 points to reach 42. A year ago at this time, the national Price Direction sub-index jumped 11 points to hit 52.
Regional Data
In January 2025, Buyer Activity levels rose in five out of seven regions, with the Southwest recording the largest increase (21 → 30) and the Mid-Atlantic seeing the biggest decrease (41 → 32). All seven regions’ Buyer Activity indexes remained well below the 50 breakeven point.
Five of the seven regions also saw their Price Direction sub-indexes move higher, though the increase was generally modest. The Southwest (29 → 36) and West (41 → 48) regions tied for the biggest increase, while the Mid-Atlantic saw the largest drop (57 → 50). Only the Northeast (58) and Mid-Atlantic regions (50) kept their Price-Direction sub-indexes at or above 50.
“Our overall index improved for the second-straight month, which is fairly normal for this time of year. That said, the recent upward trend in bond yields and mortgage rates is clearly tempering buyer activity. The Federal Reserve cut rates for the third time on December 18, but Fed members’ revised ‘dot plot’ forecasts implied a slower pace of rate cuts ahead,” said Barry Habib, MBS Highway’s Founder and CEO.
In January 2025, Buyer Activity levels rose in five out of seven regions, with the Southwest recording the largest increase (21 → 30) and the Mid-Atlantic seeing the biggest decrease (41 → 32). All seven regions’ Buyer Activity indexes remained well below the 50 breakeven point.
Five of the seven regions also saw their Price Direction sub-indexes move higher, though the increase was generally modest. The Southwest (29 → 36) and West (41 → 48) regions tied for the biggest increase, while the Mid-Atlantic saw the largest drop (57 → 50). Only the Northeast (58) and Mid-Atlantic regions (50) kept their Price-Direction sub-indexes at or above 50.
“Our overall index improved for the second-straight month, which is fairly normal for this time of year. That said, the recent upward trend in bond yields and mortgage rates is clearly tempering buyer activity. The Federal Reserve cut rates for the third time on December 18, but Fed members’ revised ‘dot plot’ forecasts implied a slower pace of rate cuts ahead,” said Barry Habib, MBS Highway’s Founder and CEO.
Methodology
MBS Highway’s monthly Housing Index provides an accurate and real-time read on buyer activity and home price direction both nationally and regionally in the U.S. housing market. This survey of 30,000 mortgage and real estate professionals fills a crucial industry need for insights that reflect buyers’ immediate experiences, helping mortgage loan originators to better serve homebuyers.
The MBS Highway Housing Survey is comprised of two separate component indices: buyer activity and home price direction. Each month, respondents rank buyer activity as “active,” “steady,” or “slower,” and home price direction as “price increases,” “steady,” or “price reductions.” A national and regional index is calculated for each component index by applying the formula “[active + (steady/2)]” for buyer activity, and “[price increases + (steady/2)]” for home price direction. The score for each component index is then used to calculate the MBS Highway Housing Index by applying the formula "[(national buyer activity/2) + (national home price direction/2)].
Any number over 50 indicates expansion while a number below 50 indicates contraction. The MBS Highway Housing Index can range between 0 and 100.
Dan Habib, MBS Highway’s Chief Revenue Officer, explained, “There are a few reliable housing reports available in the market, most of which are delayed by two months. Because MBS Highway has a large base of mortgage and real estate clients, we felt we were in a unique position to capture real-time housing data from our subscribers, who are on the front lines of the housing market.”
MBS Highway’s monthly Housing Index provides an accurate and real-time read on buyer activity and home price direction both nationally and regionally in the U.S. housing market. This survey of 30,000 mortgage and real estate professionals fills a crucial industry need for insights that reflect buyers’ immediate experiences, helping mortgage loan originators to better serve homebuyers.
The MBS Highway Housing Survey is comprised of two separate component indices: buyer activity and home price direction. Each month, respondents rank buyer activity as “active,” “steady,” or “slower,” and home price direction as “price increases,” “steady,” or “price reductions.” A national and regional index is calculated for each component index by applying the formula “[active + (steady/2)]” for buyer activity, and “[price increases + (steady/2)]” for home price direction. The score for each component index is then used to calculate the MBS Highway Housing Index by applying the formula "[(national buyer activity/2) + (national home price direction/2)].
Any number over 50 indicates expansion while a number below 50 indicates contraction. The MBS Highway Housing Index can range between 0 and 100.
Dan Habib, MBS Highway’s Chief Revenue Officer, explained, “There are a few reliable housing reports available in the market, most of which are delayed by two months. Because MBS Highway has a large base of mortgage and real estate clients, we felt we were in a unique position to capture real-time housing data from our subscribers, who are on the front lines of the housing market.”