MBS Highway Housing Index, November 2024
The MBS Highway National Housing Index dropped 9 points to 31 as the brief (and unseasonal) rise in buyer activity last month was crushed by the rebound in mortgage rates.
National Data
The MBS Highway National Housing Index in November 2024 fell 9 points month-over-month to 31. This compares with a 4 point drop at the same time last year (35 → 31).
In October 2024, the overall index had remained flat at 40, with the sharp fall in mortgage rates over the prior four months giving an unseasonal boost to the Buyer Activity sub-index. However, this reversed aggressively in November, with mortgage rates rebounding nearly 100 basis points, and the Buyer Activity sub-index plunging 15 points to 24. In November 2023, the national Buyer-Activity sub-index was at 20.
The national Price Direction sub-index fell 4 points to 37 in November 2024. A year ago, the national Price Direction sub-index was at 41.
In October 2024, the overall index had remained flat at 40, with the sharp fall in mortgage rates over the prior four months giving an unseasonal boost to the Buyer Activity sub-index. However, this reversed aggressively in November, with mortgage rates rebounding nearly 100 basis points, and the Buyer Activity sub-index plunging 15 points to 24. In November 2023, the national Buyer-Activity sub-index was at 20.
The national Price Direction sub-index fell 4 points to 37 in November 2024. A year ago, the national Price Direction sub-index was at 41.
Regional Data
In November 2024, Buyer Activity levels fell in all regions, with the biggest drops seen in the Northwest (46 → 18), West (48 → 27), and Northeast (59 → 41) regions. Cooler weather, coupled with much higher mortgage rates, ended the brief (and unseasonal) increase in buyer activity that we saw in many regions last month. All seven regions’ Buyer Activity indexes are now below the 50 breakeven point between expansion and contraction.
Six of the seven regions also saw their Price Direction sub-indexes move lower, though the magnitude of the drop was generally less than seen with the Buyer Activity sub-indexes. The largest declines came from the Northwest (44 → 29), Southeast (34 → 28) and Mid-Atlantic (59 → 53) regions. Only the Midwest region (where the inventory of homes for sale remains very low in many markets) managed to keep its Price Direction sub-index flat at 40. Only the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions kept their Price-Direction sub-index above 50.
"Last month we saw the green shoots of increased buyer activity, but the sharp upward move in mortgage rates during October mowed them down. Recent conflicting data on the strength of the job market and limited progress on inflation saw 10-year treasury yields rise to near 4.5%. Nonetheless, the Fed stayed the course, cutting short-term rates by 25 basis points on November 7,” said Barry Habib, MBS Highway’s Founder and CEO.
In November 2024, Buyer Activity levels fell in all regions, with the biggest drops seen in the Northwest (46 → 18), West (48 → 27), and Northeast (59 → 41) regions. Cooler weather, coupled with much higher mortgage rates, ended the brief (and unseasonal) increase in buyer activity that we saw in many regions last month. All seven regions’ Buyer Activity indexes are now below the 50 breakeven point between expansion and contraction.
Six of the seven regions also saw their Price Direction sub-indexes move lower, though the magnitude of the drop was generally less than seen with the Buyer Activity sub-indexes. The largest declines came from the Northwest (44 → 29), Southeast (34 → 28) and Mid-Atlantic (59 → 53) regions. Only the Midwest region (where the inventory of homes for sale remains very low in many markets) managed to keep its Price Direction sub-index flat at 40. Only the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions kept their Price-Direction sub-index above 50.
"Last month we saw the green shoots of increased buyer activity, but the sharp upward move in mortgage rates during October mowed them down. Recent conflicting data on the strength of the job market and limited progress on inflation saw 10-year treasury yields rise to near 4.5%. Nonetheless, the Fed stayed the course, cutting short-term rates by 25 basis points on November 7,” said Barry Habib, MBS Highway’s Founder and CEO.
Methodology
MBS Highway’s monthly Housing Index provides an accurate and real-time read on buyer activity and home price direction both nationally and regionally in the U.S. housing market. This survey of 30,000 mortgage and real estate professionals fills a crucial industry need for insights that reflect buyers’ immediate experiences, helping mortgage loan originators to better serve homebuyers.
The MBS Highway Housing Survey is comprised of two separate component indices: buyer activity and home price direction. Each month, respondents rank buyer activity as “active,” “steady,” or “slower,” and home price direction as “price increases,” “steady,” or “price reductions.” A national and regional index is calculated for each component index by applying the formula “[active + (steady/2)]” for buyer activity, and “[price increases + (steady/2)]” for home price direction. The score for each component index is then used to calculate the MBS Highway Housing Index by applying the formula "[(national buyer activity/2) + (national home price direction/2)].
Any number over 50 indicates expansion while a number below 50 indicates contraction. The MBS Highway Housing Index can range between 0 and 100.
Dan Habib, MBS Highway’s Chief Revenue Officer, explained, “There are a few reliable housing reports available in the market, most of which are delayed by two months. Because MBS Highway has a large base of mortgage and real estate clients, we felt we were in a unique position to capture real-time housing data from our subscribers, who are on the front lines of the housing market.”
MBS Highway’s monthly Housing Index provides an accurate and real-time read on buyer activity and home price direction both nationally and regionally in the U.S. housing market. This survey of 30,000 mortgage and real estate professionals fills a crucial industry need for insights that reflect buyers’ immediate experiences, helping mortgage loan originators to better serve homebuyers.
The MBS Highway Housing Survey is comprised of two separate component indices: buyer activity and home price direction. Each month, respondents rank buyer activity as “active,” “steady,” or “slower,” and home price direction as “price increases,” “steady,” or “price reductions.” A national and regional index is calculated for each component index by applying the formula “[active + (steady/2)]” for buyer activity, and “[price increases + (steady/2)]” for home price direction. The score for each component index is then used to calculate the MBS Highway Housing Index by applying the formula "[(national buyer activity/2) + (national home price direction/2)].
Any number over 50 indicates expansion while a number below 50 indicates contraction. The MBS Highway Housing Index can range between 0 and 100.
Dan Habib, MBS Highway’s Chief Revenue Officer, explained, “There are a few reliable housing reports available in the market, most of which are delayed by two months. Because MBS Highway has a large base of mortgage and real estate clients, we felt we were in a unique position to capture real-time housing data from our subscribers, who are on the front lines of the housing market.”