January 2025 MBS Highway Housing Index

The MBS Highway National Housing Index rose four points in January 2025, as the steady rise in mortgage rates during December tempered the normal seasonal upswing.

National Data

The MBS Highway National Housing Index in January 2025 rose 4 points month-over-month to 36. This compares with an 8 point gain at the same time last year (34 → 42). As a reminder, an index level of 50 represents the breakeven point between contraction (<50) and expansion (>50).

In each of the past three years, our overall index bottomed in November. In November 2022 at 13; in November 2023 at 31; and in November 2024 at 30. In general, while market sentiment today is significantly stronger than it was in late-2022, it is slightly weaker than it was in late-2023.

The Buyer Activity sub-index rose for the second-straight month, climbing 4 points to 30. However, the normal seasonal upswing has been less pronounced than last year (+6 points to 33), most likely reflecting mortgage rates that drifted steadily higher in December 2024.

The national Price Direction sub-index also rose for the second-straight month, adding 4 points to reach 42. A year ago at this time, the national Price Direction sub-index jumped 11 points to hit 52.

Regional Data

In January 2025, Buyer Activity levels rose in five out of seven regions, with the Southwest recording the largest increase (21 → 30) and the Mid-Atlantic seeing the biggest decrease (41 → 32). All seven regions’ Buyer Activity indexes remained well below the 50 breakeven point.

Five of the seven regions also saw their Price Direction sub-indexes move higher, though the increase was generally modest. The Southwest (29 → 36) and West (41 → 48) regions tied for the biggest increase, while the Mid-Atlantic saw the largest drop (57 → 50). Only the Northeast (58) and Mid-Atlantic regions (50) kept their Price-Direction sub-indexes at or above 50.

“Our overall index improved for the second-straight month, which is fairly normal for this time of year. That said, the recent upward trend in bond yields and mortgage rates is clearly tempering buyer activity. The Federal Reserve cut rates for the third time on December 18, but Fed members’ revised ‘dot plot’ forecasts implied a slower pace of rate cuts ahead,” said Barry Habib, MBS Highway’s Founder and CEO.