November 2023 MBS Highway Housing Index

Buyer activity slowed further as 30-yr mortgage rates climbed briefly above 8%, and the prevalence of price reductions increased. That said, the recent, sharp reversal in mortgage rates in recent weeks, and the continued, unseasonal rise in inventory could improve transaction volumes in the months to come.

National Data

The MBS Highway National Housing Index dropped to 31 in November 2023 from 35 in October 2023. In November 2022, the index was at 13.

Buyer activity slowed further, as average 30-year mortgage rates climbed briefly above 8%, and normal seasonality took hold. The National Buyer Activity sub-index dropped to 20 in November 2023 from 24 in October 2023, but remained above the 13 seen in November 2022.

Although competition levels have eased in recent months, the low inventory of homes available for sale has tempered the decline in the National Home Price Direction sub-index, which fell to 41 in November 2023, from 46 in October 2023. In November 2022, when home prices were falling month-over-month in most larger cities, the sub-index was at 12.

Regional Data

The most notable change in the regional indexes was the sharp decrease in the Buyer Activity index for the Northeast (67 in September, 45 in October and 30 in November). As a reminder, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions have been both the most active and had the most positive price direction for most of 2023.

It also appears that the Northwest (+1), Midwest (flat) and Southwest (-2) regions are finding their floors, with their Buyer Activity indexes largely unchanged from October.

Similar to the trends seen at the National level, the regional Price Direction indexes are holding up much better. In both the Mid-Atlantic (60) and the Northeast (57), price increases still outnumber price decreases. The weakest pricing trends remain in the Northwest (28) and Southwest (34).

“Even without mortgage rates moving above 8%, you’d still expect to see the normal, seasonal slowdown in the MBS Highway Housing Survey results. Compared to last year, buyer activity is generally higher and price direction is much stronger. There’s also real hope that the drop in US treasury yields and mortgage rates we’ve seen in the last few weeks will draw a line under transaction volumes,” said Barry Habib, MBS Highway Founder and CEO.