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Talking Points
Learn more about the MBS Highway Housing Index methodology HERE.
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Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Contraction?'
March 6, 2025
Between the on-again-off-again tariffs, the weak ADP job growth in Feb 2025, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model calling for a contraction in 1Q 2025, there’s been a lot of bad news / uncertainty over the last week. But much of that was good news for mortgage rates.
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Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Risk-off'
February 27, 2025
Concerns about the impact of tariffs, the outlook for company earnings, and more have seen the stock market looking very shaky. The ‘risk-off’ trade has benefited bond prices, helping to send average mortgage rates back into the 6% range.
Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Python'
February 20, 2025
Builder confidence and housing starts plunged!? Not really. But tariff fears and rising affordability issues (mortgage rates, home prices, and insurance) are weighing on sentiment and sales.
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Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Wrong Way'
February 13, 2025
The January CPI report was just what we DIDN’T need, with inflation rising on higher home rental, oil and food costs. Unless something changes, the Fed might not cut again for several months.
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Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Tariffic'
February 6, 2025
A crazy week for politics and the markets saw 30-yr mortgage rates drift closer to the 6s. The recent trends in inflation (PCE) were encouraging, but the BLS jobs report could set the tone for bond yields and mortgage rates over the coming weeks.
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Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Pause'
January 30, 2025
Mortgage rates have been trending lower lately, but not because of the typical drivers (lower inflation or higher unemployment). Instead, we have China and Colombia to thank.
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Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Inventory'
January 16, 2025
The tamer December CPI report helped mortgage rates move lower. Meanwhile, the inventory of homes for sale continues to rise. Lower rates + more inventory? Let’s hope the trend continues as the spring selling season approaches!
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Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Nuevo'
January 9, 2025
We’ve got a lot of news to catch up on after our Christmas break, so we’ve broken it up by themes rather than chronological order.
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Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Merry'
December 12, 2024
After two bumpy years of around 4 million units in existing home sales, the two big questions for 2025 are: 1) will mortgage rates finally follow the Fed Funds Rate lower?, and 2) will they drop enough to get demand (and supply) back to normal?
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Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Forecasts'
December 5, 2024
What will 2025 hold for the housing market? Most forecasters are calling for a modest increase in transaction volumes and limited price growth (2–4%), but it all hinges on trends in mortgage rates.
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Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Blip?'
November 21, 2024
October existing home sales increased on a year-over-year basis for the first time in more than 3 years. That’s great news, but it’s hard to say if that’s just a ‘blip’ (mortgage rates have risen sharply since then) or a real bottoming in transaction volumes.
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Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Wealth'
November 14, 2024
The inventory of homes for sale is up 28% year-over-year (more choices for buyers!), but 30-yr mortgage rates are back near 7% (affordability issues for buyers).
